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03/15/2023

Montsegur

A gap lower into 3865 - well below the Cover Signal line at 3903 and well below the Sell Signal line at 3888 - is met with further selling into a low at 3840 before an afternoon recovery.

Difficult market conditions.

A Cover Signal at 3888

Chart of S&P 500 for 16 March 2023

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Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions

 

Posted at 11:23 PM in S&P500 daily update |

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“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
- Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
- Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
- Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

STATUS

LONG TERM (Monthly): NEUTRAL
MEDIUM TERM (Weekly): NEUTRAL
SHORT TERM (Daily): S/T BUY SIGNAL

T VOLUME Osc: NEGATIVE
OSC: POSITIVE

2023 POSITIONS

(All numbers refer to SPX)
S/T BUY Signal at 3959 on 24 March
S/T SELL Signal at 3924 on 24 March
COVER Signal at 3939 on 23 March
S/T SELL Signal at 3924 on 23 March
S/T BUY Signal at 3959 on 23 March
COVER Signal at 3945 on 22 March
S/T BUY Signal at 3915 on 16 March
COVER Signal at 3996 on 16 March
S/T SELL Signal at 3881 on 16 March
COVER Signal at 3965 on 15 March
S/T BUY Signal at 3919 on 14 March
S/T SELL Signal at 3976 on 09 March
COVER Signal at 3991 on 09 March
S/T BUY Signal at 4011 on 09 March
COVER Signal at 3991 on 08 March
S/T SELL Signal at 3991 on 07 March
COVER Signal at 4006 on 07 March
S/T BUY Signal at 3987 on 03 March
COVER Signal at 3968 on 03 March
S/T SELL Signal at 4070 on 17 February
COVER Signal at 4120 on 16 February
S/T BUY Signal at 4114 on 13 February
COVER Signal at 4116 on 09 February
S/T BUY Signal at 4044 on 09 February
COVER Signal at 4120 on 08 February
S/T BUY Signal at 4039 on 31 January
COVER Signal at 4025 on 30 January
S/T BUY Signal at 3946 on 20 January
COVER Signal at 3958 on 18 January
S/T BUY Signal at 3837 on 06 January
S/T SELL Signal at 3813 on 05 January
S/T BUY Signal at 3840 on 04 January
COVER Signal at 3825 on 03 January
S/T BUY Signal at 3833 on 29 December

HISTORY

2022 POSITIONS

2021 POSITIONS

2020 POSITIONS

2019 POSITIONS

2018 POSITIONS

2017 POSITIONS

2016 POSITIONS

2015 POSITIONS

2014 POSITIONS

2013 POSITIONS

MISSION

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.
The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.
And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

CONTACT ME

  • tradingtheline@gmail.com

TOOLBOX

T Theory Volume Oscillator
Terry Laundry's Magic T Volume oscillator

WSJ Market Data Center
Advanced / Decline Volumes

ARMS Index (TRIN)

SKEW
Black Swan indicator

CPCE
CBOE Equity PUT/Call Ratio

CPC
CBOE Total PUT/Call Ratio

NYMO
NYSE McClellan Oscillator

VIX
Volatility Index

VVIX
Volatility of Volatility Index

RECOMMENDED WEBSITES

Bob Karrow: Stock Market Observations
A fantastic resource with great insights from Bob Karrow and includes an extensive archive of Terry Laundry T Theory observations

GUNNER24 Forecasts
Fascinating Gann based analysis

Finviz
Very useful portfolio and stock screener

Stockcharts
Fantastic Charting resource

RECOMMENDED READING

Martin Schwartz: Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Trader
Martin Schwartz: Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Trader

The first light really went on when reading Pit Bull by Marty Schwartz and if you haven’t read it I could not recommend it more highly. Marty Schwartz talks about Green Light / Red Light and Terry Laundry’s Magic T Theory - both very important concepts.

Jack D Schwager: Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders
Jack D Schwager: Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders

"Market Wizards is one of the most fascinating books ever written about Wall Street. A few of the ′Wizards′ are my friends—and Jack Schwager has nailed their modus operandi on the head." – Martin W. Zweig, Ph.D., Editor, The Zweig Forecast

I thoroughly recommend all of Jack's books.

Victor Sperandeo: Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master
Victor Sperandeo: Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master

A really insightful book. Great section on economics.

"Victor Sperandeo is gifted with one of the finest minds I know. No wonder he′s compiled such an amazing record of success as a money manager. Every investor can benefit from the wisdom he offers in his new book. Don′t miss it!" - Paul Tudor Jones Tudor Investment Corporation

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MORE RECOMMENDED READING

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: Annotated Edition by Jon D. Markman
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: Annotated Edition by Jon D. Markman

With new commentary and Insights on the life and times of Jesse Livermore Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the fictionalized biography of perhaps the most famous financial speculator of all time–Jesse Livermore. This annotated edition bridges the gap between Edwin Lefevre′s fictionalized account of Livermore′s life and the actual, historical events, places, and people that populate the book. It also describes the variety of trading approaches Livermore used throughout his life and analyzes his psychological development as a trader and the lessons gained through hard experiences.

“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
- Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
- Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
A masquerade party, guest and host.
A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
- Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.
- George Orwell

There was a student... just the other day... who said that my problem, if one's nature is a problem, rather than just problematic, is that I see things in terms of victory or death, and not just victory but total victory. And it's true: I always have. It's either victory, or don't bother. The only thing worth doing is the impossible. Everything else is gray. You're born... as a man... with the nerves of a soldier, the apprehension of an angel, to lift a phrase, but there is no use for it. Here? Where's the use for it? You're set up to be a philosopher or a king or Shakespeare, and this is all they give you? This? Twenty- odd years of school which is all instruction in how to be ordinary... or they'll fucking kill you, they fucking will, and then it's a career, which is not the same thing as existence... I want unlimited things. I want everything. A real love. A real house. A real thing to do... every day. I'd rather die if I don't get it.
- The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt

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