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05/19/2022

Refuge

Strong persistent selling from the open after an Arms Warning as the market finds no support, dropping through the Cover Signal line at 4023 and then through the Sell Signal line at 4008, continuing lower into the close.

Sell Signal active.

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Sign up here for daily analysis with the updated Buy / Sell trigger levels being generated by the Trading the Line S/T System before the market opens. Trading the Line Membership - includes Explanatory Notes (pdf), Notes on Day Trading (pdf) and End of Day Snapshot of Day Trading Entries.

Disclaimer: This is the diary of a personal trading system, its methodology and the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow along but please understand that the information presented here is for educational purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions

Posted at 10:05 AM in S&P500 daily update |

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“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
- Leonardo da Vinci

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”
- Albert Einstein

“All of our days are numbered. We can not afford to be idle. To act on a bad idea is better than to not act at all because the worth of the idea never becomes apparent until you do it. Sometimes this idea can be the smallest thing in the world; a little flame that you hunch over and cup with your hand and pray will not be extinguished by all the storm that howls about it. If you can hold on to that flame, great things can be constructed around it; things that are massive and powerful and world changing. All held up by the tiniest of ideas.”
- Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

STATUS

LONG TERM (Monthly): BEARISH
MEDIUM TERM (Weekly): BEARISH
SHORT TERM (Daily): S/T BUY SIGNAL

T VOLUME Osc: POSITIVE
OSC: POSITIVE

2025 POSITIONS

(All numbers refer to SPX)
S/T BUY Signal at 5275 on 22 April
COVER Signal at 5225 on 22 April
S/T SELL Signal below 5320 on 16 April
COVER Signal at 5330 on 16 April
S/T BUY Signal at 5263 on 10 April
S/T SELL Signal active below 5639 on 10 April
COVER Signal below 5263 on 10 April
S/T BUY Signal at 5200 on 09 April
COVER Signal at 5150 on 09 April
S/T SELL Signal below 5614 on 01 April
COVER Signal below 5638 at 5480 on 03 April
S/T BUY Signal at 5657 on 02 April
COVER Signal above 5610 on 01 April
S/T SELL Signal below 5610 on 01 April
COVER Signal at 5610 on 31 March
S/T SELL Signal at 5671 on 28 March
COVER Signal at 5704 at 5704 on 27 March
S/T SELL Signal at 5680 on 27 March
COVER Signal below 5704 at 5680 on 27 March
S/T BUY Signal at 5644 on 19 March
COVER Signal at 5624 on 18 March
S/T SELL Signal at 5600 on 18 March
COVER Signal at 5624 on 18 March
S/T BUY Signal above 5625 on 14 March
COVER Signal at 5573 on 14 March
S/T SELL Signal below 5765 on 10 March
COVER Signal at 5782 on 07 March
S/T SELL Signal below 5823 on 03 March
COVER Signal at 5833 on 05 March
S/T SELL Signal at 5914 on 03 March
COVER Signal at 5938 on 03 March
S/T BUY Signal above 5967 on 03 March
COVER Signal at 5913 on 28 February
S/T SELL Signal at 6060 on 21 February
COVER Signal at 6101 on 21 February
S/T BUY Signal above 6043 on 12 February
S/T SELL Signal at 5967 at 6020 on 12 February
S/T BUY Signal at 6061 on 10 February
COVER Signal at 6041 on 07 February
S/T BUY Signal at 6049 on 05 February
COVER Signal at 5960 on 03 February
S/T SELL Signal below 5967 at 5960 on 03 February
COVER Signal at 6041 on 31 January
S/T BUY Signal at 6064 on 30 January
COVER Signal at 6039 on 29 January
S/T BUY Signal at 6062 on 28 January
COVER Signal below 6050 at 5965 on 27 January
S/T BUY Signal above 5878 at 5925 on 15 January
COVER Signal at 5835 on 14 January
S/T SELL Signal at 5811 on 14 January
COVER Signal at 5835 on 13 January
S/T SELL Signal below 5887 at 5875 on 10 January
S/T SELL Signal at 5891 on 08 January (Unconfirmed)
COVER Signal at 5915 on 08 January
S/T SELL Signal at 5891 on 08 January
S/T SELL Signal at 5901 on 07 January (Unconfirmed)
COVER Signal at 5925 on 07 January
S/T BUY Signal at 5928 on 03 January
COVER Signal above 5900 on 03 January

HISTORY

2024 POSITIONS

2023 POSITIONS

2022 POSITIONS

2021 POSITIONS

2020 POSITIONS

2019 POSITIONS

2018 POSITIONS

2017 POSITIONS

2016 POSITIONS

2015 POSITIONS

2014 POSITIONS

2013 POSITIONS

MISSION

It has been my Mission to create a simple but effective method for investing in the stock market, so that I would always know what to do regardless of the circumstances.
The result is a rigorous system which allows the market to tell you what to do, when to Buy, when to Hold, when to Cover, and when to Sell, and it removes the need for you to have any opinion whatsoever.
And so, I present to you the diary of my personal trading system, and a record of the signals that it is producing. You are welcome to follow me along but please understand that the information posted here is for entertainment purposes only. No recommendations are being made to buy, or sell stocks, options or futures contracts. Please consult your own financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Please sign up for my occasional FREE REPORTS and if you would like to find out more and receive my email alerts and more detailed observations, please SIGN UP HERE

CONTACT ME

  • tradingtheline@gmail.com

TOOLBOX

T Theory Volume Oscillator
Terry Laundry's Magic T Volume oscillator

WSJ Market Data Center
Advanced / Decline Volumes

ARMS Index (TRIN)

SKEW
Black Swan indicator

CPCE
CBOE Equity PUT/Call Ratio

CPC
CBOE Total PUT/Call Ratio

NYMO
NYSE McClellan Oscillator

VIX
Volatility Index

VVIX
Volatility of Volatility Index

RECOMMENDED WEBSITES

Bob Karrow: Stock Market Observations
A fantastic resource with great insights from Bob Karrow and includes an extensive archive of Terry Laundry T Theory observations

GUNNER24 Forecasts
Fascinating Gann based analysis

Finviz
Very useful portfolio and stock screener

Stockcharts
Fantastic Charting resource

RECOMMENDED READING

Martin Schwartz: Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Trader
Martin Schwartz: Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Trader

The first light really went on when reading Pit Bull by Marty Schwartz and if you haven’t read it I could not recommend it more highly. Marty Schwartz talks about Green Light / Red Light and Terry Laundry’s Magic T Theory - both very important concepts.

Jack D Schwager: Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders
Jack D Schwager: Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders

"Market Wizards is one of the most fascinating books ever written about Wall Street. A few of the ′Wizards′ are my friends—and Jack Schwager has nailed their modus operandi on the head." – Martin W. Zweig, Ph.D., Editor, The Zweig Forecast

I thoroughly recommend all of Jack's books.

Victor Sperandeo: Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master
Victor Sperandeo: Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master

A really insightful book. Great section on economics.

"Victor Sperandeo is gifted with one of the finest minds I know. No wonder he′s compiled such an amazing record of success as a money manager. Every investor can benefit from the wisdom he offers in his new book. Don′t miss it!" - Paul Tudor Jones Tudor Investment Corporation

Categories

Archives

MORE RECOMMENDED READING

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: Annotated Edition by Jon D. Markman
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: Annotated Edition by Jon D. Markman

With new commentary and Insights on the life and times of Jesse Livermore Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the fictionalized biography of perhaps the most famous financial speculator of all time–Jesse Livermore. This annotated edition bridges the gap between Edwin Lefevre′s fictionalized account of Livermore′s life and the actual, historical events, places, and people that populate the book. It also describes the variety of trading approaches Livermore used throughout his life and analyzes his psychological development as a trader and the lessons gained through hard experiences.

“In the end, I’m not interested in that which I fully understand. The words I have written over the years are just a veneer. There are truths that lie beneath the surface of the words... truths that rise up without warning, like the humps of a sea monster and then disappear. What performance and song is to me is finding a way to tempt the monster to the surface, to create a space, where the creature can break through what is real and what is known to us. This shimmering space where imagination and reality intersect... this is where all love and tears and joy exist. This is the place. This is where we live.”
- Nick Cave, 20,000 days on Earth

“If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.”
- Charles Bukowski, Factotum, 1975

“The mind is a glass floor.
The mind is the spirit’s tear.
The mind is our prior and subsequent ghost.
The mind is the Bullion Express and the blood on the tracks.
The mind is a stone door.
The silver on the backs of mirrors.
The wave that defines the coast.
It’s what the drunk grave robbers couldn’t stuff in their sacks.
The mind is the sum of all and more.
The spasm between one and zero in the Calendar of Black-Hole Years.
The contract between the lash and the whipping post.
A quilt of dreams stitched with facts.
A meaningless argument among whores.
Rain that keeps falling when the sky clears.
A masquerade party, guest and host.
A candlelit landscape of puddled wax.
The mind is what thought is for.
The parking lot at the Mall of Fears.
The fire-pit for the piggy roast.
What the soul surrendered and won’t take back.
The mind is neither either nor or.
The real center of an empty sphere.”
- Jim Dodge, Stone Junction, 1990

The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.
- George Orwell

There was a student... just the other day... who said that my problem, if one's nature is a problem, rather than just problematic, is that I see things in terms of victory or death, and not just victory but total victory. And it's true: I always have. It's either victory, or don't bother. The only thing worth doing is the impossible. Everything else is gray. You're born... as a man... with the nerves of a soldier, the apprehension of an angel, to lift a phrase, but there is no use for it. Here? Where's the use for it? You're set up to be a philosopher or a king or Shakespeare, and this is all they give you? This? Twenty- odd years of school which is all instruction in how to be ordinary... or they'll fucking kill you, they fucking will, and then it's a career, which is not the same thing as existence... I want unlimited things. I want everything. A real love. A real house. A real thing to do... every day. I'd rather die if I don't get it.
- The Gambler (2014), Dir. Rupert Wyatt

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